Yeah, I know I’m a day late, but I was busy yesterday, so even though I had some thoughts on the nominations, I didn’t have the time to put them down before today. First, how did my predictions do? I got 84 out of 107 right – for a total of 78%, which is about normal for me. The big ones I missed were Phantom Thread in picture, director and supporting actress, Washington in Actor, Plummer in Supporting Actor and Logan in Adapted Screenplay. I should have seen some of those coming, but what are you going to do?
Surprises
My biggest, happiest surprise was all the love Phantom Thread got – picking up nominations for Picture, Director and Supporting Actress (Lesley Manville) to go along with more expected nominations for Actor (Day-Lewis), Score (for Jonny Greenwood, finally getting love) and Costume Design. It was my favorite film of 2017, so I have something to root for, even though we all know it’s losing, probably all of the awards except for Costume, which I think it has a shot at.
I’m not sure I’m adamantly AGAINST any of the nominations, really. I don’t think Darkest Hour deserved all the love (Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design) – but that wasn’t too much of a surprise (I didn’t see the Picture nomination, but should have). I wish if the Academy wasn’t going to go for this type of prestige drama that they would have gone with Spielberg’s The Post, which is so much more entertaining, and could have picked up some of those noms, and been fine. If the Denzel Washington nomination for the not very good Roman J. Israel, Esq. taught us something, it’s that Best Actor was wide open – and the people behind some dark horse candidates (Robert Pattinson in Good Time or Harry Dean Stanton in Lucky) should have pushed harder to try and get into the conversation. (For the record, I don’t much like the film, and am mixed on Washington’s performance, but what I will say about it, is that it’s like nothing Washington has done before) I know a lot of people are citing the allegations against James Franco as the reason he didn’t get nominated for The Disaster Artist – but those allegations surfaced so late in the voting window, that I cannot help but think while it may have had a minor impact, it didn’t have much. That was always an odd movie for the Academy to embrace, which I think is the real issue (yes, the screenplay got nominated, but in the weakest Adapted Screenplay slate I’ve ever seen.
You do feel a little bad for Holly Hunter, who for me was probably the “surest bet” heading into nomination morning who didn’t get nominated. Yes, I am happy that Lesley Manville got “her” spot, but as much as I love her, I’m not quite sure why Octavia Spencer got in for The Shape of Water other than love for the film. (I feel bad for saying that, given that I wonder something similar about Spencer last year for Hidden Figures – although then, I just wanted force of nature Janelle Monae nominated for the same film).
Other Observations
I was thankful that both Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig received Best Director nominations – mostly because they both deserve it for their fantastic work, but also because we will now be spared a million think pieces about an all-male, mostly white (Guillermo del Toro’s nomination was always secure) slate of director nominees. Peele joins John Singleton, Lee Daniels, Steve McQueen and Barry Jenkins as black nominees, and Greta Gerwig joins Lina Wertmuller, Jane Campion, Sofia Coppola and Kathryn Bigelow as female nominees. I hope this becomes so commonplace, that we don’t need to point it out every year, but we’re not there yet. There were other good stories up and down the nominations – Daniel Kaluuya and Denzel Washington in Actor, Octavia Spencer and Mary J. Blige in Supporting Actress mean “only” 16 of the 20 acting nominees are white. Rachel Morrison finally broke the cinematography sausage fest – becoming the first woman nominated for the prize (the great Ellen Kuras probably should have done that years ago). Kumail Nanjiani become the first man for Pakistan nominated for writing. Yance Ford (who directed Strong Island) becomes the first Trans individual to be nominated. Another, slightly more under the radar stat, is that 8 out of 10 of the female nominees are above 40 – this is a group who loves their young ingénues, but this year they went for experience (one of the 2 under 40 is Saorise Ronan, who has been nominated three times already, so has the experience as well).
Interesting Stats
Meryl Streep received her 21st nomination – which is 9 more than the next most nominated actor or actress. Oddly, it’s the first time since 1985, that she is nominated in a Best Picture nominee (she was in The Hours in 2002, but wasn’t nominated for it). Denzel Washington got his 8th nomination – he was already the most nominated African American actor of all time, so he extends that a little, and ties him for the 8th most acting nominations ever (with Jack Lemmon, Marlon Brando, Al Pacino, Geraldine Page, and Peter O’Toole). Washington is only 63, so tying Spencer Tracy and Paul Newman with 9 nominations seems likely, and Laurence Olivier’s 10 nominations is within reach as well. After that, it’s just Bette Davis (11) and Katherine Hepburn and Jack Nicholson (12) between him and Streep. Washington has had Oscar droughts before (he wasn’t nominated at all between Training Day in 2001 and Flight in 2012), so who knows (and his own Upcoming movie on IMDB is The Equalizer 2), but there is no doubt that he could keep rising up the all-time board if current hot streak continues. Christopher Plummer became the oldest acting nominee at 88 – and there has to be some kind of record he set between when his role was filmed, and when he got the nomination. James Ivory would have been the oldest nominee ever in a competitive category at 89, but isn’t because Agnes Varda, who was nominated for her doc Faces Places, is a couple of months older.
The Post is Spielberg’s 11th film nominated for Best Picture – by far the most among active directors (Scorsese has 8, then Eastwood and Francis Ford Coppola with 5), and just two shy of William Wyler’s record with 13. Oddly, while 3 Wyler films won Best Picture (Mrs. Miniver, The Best Years of Our Lives, Ben-Hur) only one Spielberg film has (Schindler’s List). With the two nominations, Spielberg films have now been nominated for 130 Oscars – the most of any director (I think there are a couple of “special awards” his films won back in the 1970s, when they did that type of thing, not included in that number).
The Shape of Water’s 13 nominations, came one shy of tying the record set by All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land, but does tie it with heavyweights like Gone with the Wind, From Here to Eternity, Shakespeare in Love, Forrest Gump, Chicago, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf, Mary Poppins, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Of those, 12 films, 8 have won Best Picture, 4 have not).
Roger Deakins received his 14th Cinematography nomination for Blade Runner 2049 – the most of any active cinematographer, and breaking his tie with George J. Folsey who was nominated for 13 Oscars between 1934 and 1964, without winning. He could win this one, but I wouldn’t bet on it. John Williams got his 51st nomination for Star Wars: The Last Jedi – he’s unlikely to win his 6th Oscar, but you never know.
Who Wins?
I think the acting winners are fairly secure – Oldman, McDormand, Rockwell and Janney have won the major precursors, so they should be secure. The spousal abuse allegations against Oldman haven’t gained much traction, and even if they do, I don’t know who would beat him. I think Metcalf could (and should) challenge Janney, but I’m not sold that she will. The two Three Billboards wins are more secure – especially Rockwell, since his main competition, Willem Dafoe, starred in a film the Academy clearly didn’t respond to as much as critics (for shame, Academy!). IF they really want to push Ronan or Hawkins, Best Actress could become interesting, but I think McDormand has it.
Best Adapted Screenplay is almost definitely going to Call Me By Your Name, finally bringing the 89 year old James Ivory an Oscar. Original Screenplay is probably going to Three Billboards – but I’m not sold on that. In many other years, it would be a slam dunk of that film – but it may also be a slam dunk for Get Out or Lady Bird in other years as well. It could get interesting. Best Director is likely going to Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water – Dunkirk has lost steam, Anderson’s nomination was a shock. I can see people getting behind Peele or Gerwig, but at the same time, they didn’t get the kind of “below the line” support Best Director winners usually have.
Best Picture is probably The Shape of Water – with the PGA win, it’s the frontrunner for sure, and 13 nominations (and multiple likely tech awards, as well as director) tells us it’s the horse to bet on. Yet, something is pulling me a little to pick something else. This still remains a film about a woman who falls in love with a giant fish man – an odd choice for the Academy to fully embrace. The ranked ballot has rewarded consensus over passion, and smaller films, over bigger films in the last few years – even if they cannot win Director. Three Billboards is the likely other winner – the lack of a director nomination hurts, but as Argo proves, it isn’t fatal like it used to be. Yet I could also see Get Out or Lady Bird coming up from behind, winning nothing but Screenplay and Picture, a la Spotlight. This really is the closest race we’ve ever seen, and it hasn’t gotten really, truly nasty yet – and hopefully it stays that way. We should enjoy a wide open race for once. I’ll be back with full predictions, before the show.
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